A review and commentary on topical matters concerning the science, economics, and governance associated with climate change developments.

By Alan Moran

1 December 2017

Science and the Bonn Climate Change meeting

James Delingpole shows how the Paris Agreement cannot achieve the emission reductions said to be necessary to bring about a warming halt.  This confirms the correctness of President Trump's decision not to ratify the Agreement, a decision that is enhancing the competitiveness of the US.

Rewording statements of previous meeting hosts, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that “climate change is the central challenge of mankind” while President Macron also stressed the need for effective carbon pricing, a faster scale-up of renewable energy, and (ominously for those who believe in free trade) the integration of environmental goals in trade policies.

Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of the UN Climate Change secretariat, said the Bonn Conference has delivered "a launch-pad that can take us to that next stage of higher ambition".

A renewed urgency was announced but the highlight seems to have been a Gender Action Plan, outlining the role of women in climate action.

Reality was offered by Nicaragua’s chief negotiator who lamented, "We cannot risk becoming more and more irrelevant with each meeting".

"Forget Paris? Spain’s government, like that of Australia, intends to legislate to prevent the closure of coal plants if this threatens security.  Meanwhile Ireland faces EU fines of up to €600 million for not meeting its greenhouse gas emission and renewable energy goals.

Feeding the alarmist beast

The lead up to the Bonn Conference saw alarmist ”scientific” papers published which purported to show rising sea levels but, as Nils-Axel Morner demonstrates, there is no recorded measured increase.

According to a Stanford-Hoover study, largely funded by liberal Democrat funder, Tom Steyer, the world needs to up its spending on renewables from $746 billion a year to $1,300 billion a year - about two thirds of the total funds of the world’s institutional investors - to enable a 0.2 degree lowering of global temperatures.

Californian Governor Brown thinks that the world needs a total “brainwashing” to understand the dangers he considers are posed by climate change.  Courtesy of research by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Washington Times shows how climate activist US governors depend for their climate advice on the U.S. Climate Alliance, a joint venture financed by the Rockefeller Foundation, the World Wildlife Foundation and the Rhodium Group, headed by former Hillary Clinton campaign climate and energy adviser Trevor Houser.

Whenever there's a pause in coal use growth, this invites a rhetorical question, “Is coal use about to fall”? As seen in the chart below, the question is answered within a few years with renewed growth.

To reinforce the supposed exit from coal, some 19 “countries” joined Canada in a phase out coalition. 

But of the 20 countries, only Canada produces and uses substantial amounts of coal – and Canada notoriously reneges on vanity commitments, as it did with Kyoto, when its ambition is tested.

At the Bonn Conference It was left to the US government to inject some common sense into the issue of the role of coal with a promotion on its use! The green left attributed this to President Trump being under the control of the Mont Pelerin Society, a pro freedom group of which I am a proud member!

Alleged threats to the iconic Great Barrier Reef fuel much of the Australian warmistas’ agitprop. Peter Ridd, Professor at James Cook University and AEF Director, has disputed the science used by his colleagues, including the head of his University, who argue the Great Barrier Reef is threatened by climate change. The university, which is in receipt of $11 million in funding much of it reliant on threats seen to the Great Barrier Reef, is seeking to have him dismissed and to prevent the matter being debated.

Emission reducing actions and technological solutions

Owners of the first ever carbon capture and storage, Saskpower, have declared it a failure.  It costs $140 per MWh to produce the power, twice that of normal plant.  This is in the context of Canada’s emission reduction programs that have been assessed by the Fraser Institute and found wanting; Alberta’s will cost each family $3500 over the next few years with negligible effects.

Breathlessly parading renewables as the future power source for an old South Australian steel plant, its owner British billionaire Sanjeev Gupta adds, “some kind of policy is required as an incentive for the energy system to transition.” There’s always a subsidy with renewables!  And last year, when renewable subsidies forced the closure of the Hazelwood coal power station, the Victorian Premier said prices would rise only 5 per cent. On top of previous increases, this week rises of 15 per cent were announced.

The giant Elon Musk battery designed to future proof South Australia was completed on time on 1 December. The battery charges up when prices are low and feeds into the grid when they are high. The battery is also contracted by the government to provide fast-response stability services. It will allow 100 MW of power to be produced for about one hour – enough to supply five per cent of South Australia’s demand.

Euan Means estimates that to enable a grid size storage adequate to serve a renewable energy dominated UK would require 1.8 TWh at a notional cost of £48 billion with pumped storage, if such a scheme were feasible. To do it with Musk-style South Australian batteries would require 14,000 of these 129 MWh facilities at a cost of £405 billion

The ANU (Blakers et al) estimated the cost for 100% renewable electricity system is $93 and $75 per MWh respectively using current and projected future wind and PV prices. It put the capital cost of this at $184 billion (current pv/wind prices) and $152 billion (estimated future prices). The team from the ANU estimated that South Australia could be fully renewable with back-up of 400-500 GWh of storage but another study estimates this at 6,800 GWh.  And, in a refrain constantly regurgitated over the past 30 years, the ANU team claims no cost to eliminating CO2 from energy use since “the cost of electricity from new-build wind and solar power generators was below the cost of electricity from new-build fossil fuel generators”.

In an improvement on Mad Max “And methane cometh from pig shit”, according to a new study by Ben-Gurion, University of the Negev treated excrement from turkeys, chickens and other poultry, when converted to combustible solid biomass fuel, could replace approximately 10 percent of coal used in electricity generation. As ever, the researchers are looking for more funding to establish cost practicalities.

US tax cuts to promote business efficiency are partly financed by subsidy cuts to wind, solar and Tesla. In the Herald Sun I covered some implications for Australia.

Opinions

Successive UK polls over the past four years have shown those concerned about climate change falling from 82 per cent in 2005 to 60 per cent in 2016.  Perhaps cognizant of this, the UK has announced no new subsidies at least until 2025 with Treasury saying there will be no new low carbon electricity levies “until the burden of such costs is falling”.

In the US, EPA Administrator Pruitt is set to starve the grant- and subsidy-seeking beast by blocking appointments of advisers who are in receipt of government funding. Even though many new appointees are alarmists like Surabi Menon from Climateworks and Christopher Frey from North Carolina State, rent seeking scientists and warmistas are bitterly opposed.

Germany’s impossible dream of a coalition with Merkel (ex-Communist leader of the Christian Democrats) Greens, Liberals and the conservative AfD Party has collapsed on the back of differing climate policies with Greens demanding coal station closures. Either a new election is looming or a return to the Christian Democrats alliance with the socialists both of which saw a sharp contraction in their vote.

Ruminations

VW has been severely chastened for lying about its cars’ CO2 emissions but it turns out that collectively all manufacturers are increasingly in the deceit game. Here is the difference between claimed and actual fuel consumption levels.

Climate change threat of the month – it is said to be making lizards less intelligent. But that story was far less horrifying than the Guardian’s claim that climate change is forcing African families to sell off their daughters as child brides.

Finally, there may be only “50 ways to leave your lover” but a Japan-Vietnam conference has identified 145 options for greenhouse gas mitigation.

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