2022 was a turbulent year for Europe. Several countries alternated their political leadership, energy prices spiked, the migrant crisis caught Europe, once again, unprepared. A major alleged corruption scandal has shocked and shaken the EU parliament. The Russian Federation invasion of Ukraine, though, has solidly united Europe in its condemnation. Crises have proven to be a necessary driver for the development of European integration, 2023 will be a year that will further shape the European Union.
In 2022 Croatia became a full member of the European Union, the country will belong to both the Eurozone and the Schengen area without internal border checks. Croatia has joined another 15 countries which are the “most integrated” members of the continent (Belgium, Estonia, France, Greece, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain). These countries belong to EU, Eurozone, Schengen area and NATO. Croatia is set to significantly benefit this coming year from its memeberhip, in particular regarding the quality of life in the country. Bulgaria and Romania, on the other hand, will still have to wait for the accession to the Schengen zone. The EU member states couldn't reach the needed unanimity and decided not to let them enter the free travel zone. Their expectation is a continued support by the EU in boarder security, while targeting October 2023 as a probable date for entry. Bulgaria is also preparing to adopt the Euro by 2024 in order to follow suit. It’s quite evident that the Russian war will still lead the EU agenda, but the recent decision of the EU's energy ministers to agree on a cap for the wholesale price of gas under certain conditions is a step into the direction of control even though the measure is set to be implemented February 15, 2023.
The EU recently had to answer one of the most important issues for the beginning of 2023, provide a response to the US Inflation Reduction Act and the relaxation of state aid rules. "We need to give our answer, our European IRA," Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said. The US legislation allows US consumers to purchase electric vehicles with batteries manufactured domestically and in certain countries that have free trade agreements with the United States. The EU and the US have no such deal. The EU criticised the 369 billion dollars subsidies to promote climate-friendly technologies, fearing the manufacturers relocating to the US. A joint taskforce was set up to resolve this but has not had any success to date.
Quality of migration vs refugees will dominate the 2023 agenda. The illegal boarder crossing grew by 68% in the last year alone. Yet, an ageing Europe needs immigration to sustain its growth. The Western Balkans was "the most active migratory route into the EU,” growing alone in a year by 152%. According to the current law, the asylum seeker must be hosted by the country where the migrant first arrives a policy often leading to frictions between member states. This dossier will keep on creating tensions as this policy was designed in the good old days when a crisis of this sort was considered as a remote possibility.
Lastly, while Europe will continue to be a rich economy, it will continue to punch below its weight as long as member states continue to cultivate the idea of industrial national champion opposed to continental ones in order to compete at par with US and China. The size and scale of European industries with their geopolitical implications will most likely be a 2023 topic.
NEWEST Editorial, January 5 2023
