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Dear Friends,
I hope this finds you very well.
In the first half of 2024, I travelled to the Kongde Everest Mountain range
at 4250m with 50 fellow Young Global Leaders. I visited Sri Lanka twice, Lumbini,
the birthplace of Lord Buddha in Nepal, & the magnificent ancient Kingdom of Angkor Wat & Ayutthaya in Thailand. Work in geopolitics has taken me to 42 countries, from Lukla, the world's most dangerous airstrip, to the USS aircraft carrier in the Andaman Sea, an attempt to capture the unique narratives from diverse geographies with rich history, culture challenged by modern-day geopolitics of US-China & China-India competition & rivalry. Meeting the President of Nepal, His Excellency Ram Chandra Poudel, and senior diplomats from Thailand, France, the UK, Norway, Japan, China, India, Maldives and Pakistan and listening to their narratives were treasured moments to draw a broader analysis of regional geopolitics. I thank all of them for their time.
With the US Presidential election season kicking into high gear, a book on
'Biden and Beyond: The United States Rethinks South Asia' edited by distinguished scholars C Raja Mohan and Hernaikh Singh' is now published by World Scientific in Singapore. The book captures significant transitions unfolding in the US policy towards South Asia. I had the opportunity to author a chapter for this tome.
During a discussion of the Indo-Pacific strategy in Nepal, I learned how Napalese views the US strategy and the ongoing US MCC grant project. Our think tank (SAFN) collaborated with the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement(NIICE), & in Cambodia, we collaborated with the Cambodia Government's International Relations Institute of Cambodia(IRIC). I learned from Dr Kin Phea, the Director General of IRIC, that we were the first think tank from Washington DC to sign an MOU on research collaboration with IRIC. I share this achievement with all SAFN researchers and scholars. With the recent U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's meeting with Prime Minister Hun Manet of Cambodia, all eyes are now on the geopolitical balance Cambodia will bring to the region, especially with the use of Ream Port seen as the next possible Chinese military base. SAFN forecasted the same trend in October 2023. In addition to Cambodia's geopolitical balance, President Putin's recent visit to Vietnam is another factor that draws ASEAN countries closer to the Kremlin’s BRICS summit in October 2024. Russia has been a traditional partner for Vietnam, and China will play a role in Southeast Asia to pave the way for Russia to re-enter the region. Cambodia and Vietnam’s ability to maintain ties with the West & traditional partners, China and Russia, will be a critical geopolitical factor.
Visiting Angkor Wat, I learned from Dr Im Sokh, a dedicated Archeologist from Apsara Institute, that back in the 12th century, the Khmer King of Angkor, Jayavarman VII, transformed the Hindu temple dedicated to Lord Vishnu into a Buddhist temple. Hindu god Vishnu from the upper chamber was moved to the lower chamber & replaced with a Buddha statue without conflict. Hinduism's core value of 'acceptance and tolerance' was a lesson from the ancient past to the present political leaders who propagate 'Hiduthva' for all the wrong reasons. At Hudson Institute, I asked Michael Sobolick about Modi's newfound adventure and its impact on India's immediate periphery. Click here to listen to Sobolik, and I highly recommend his new Book, Countering China's Great Game. A few of my essays highlighted the danger of over-propagating Hindutva, Democratic backsliding, & geopolitical hubris depicted during the Indian election & its impact on India's neighbourhood. CPG in Thailand, where I serve as a Senior Research Fellow, invited me to discuss the same subject. Indian voters somehow reversed the trend towards a moderate posture, with a coalition government, which will protect democracy. Unfortunately, the opposite is visible with a far-right upswing in the upcoming US, France and other European elections.
I captured data from several BRI projects directly impacting people's lives in Cambodia; there were many similarities to Sri Lanka. In this newsletter, I have shared some writings. Niva Yau from the Atlantic Council contributed an exceptional paper, 'A Global South with Chinese Characteristics', on how Beijing promotes authoritarian governance through training programs targeting foreign government officials. Click here to listen to a question I raised during the launch of her paper, in which she commented on China's Buddhist Diplomacy. In this newsletter, you can read an analysis of the B-BRI Buddhist Belt & Road Initiative of China published by ORF. Niva Yau's assessment is spot-on since a former Sri Lankan foreign secretary's support for Xinjiang, as captured in my book Teardrop Diplomacy, matches the training program he received in 2019 and his subsequent support towards Chinese policies.
The World Economic Forum(WEF) Risk Report 2024 is a definite read for the election year 2024. The report highlights misinformation and disinformation as the most significant short-term risks. I had the opportunity to contribute to this report as an Expert Network member of the WEF Strategic Intelligence Network. Click here to read the full report. I was invited to the Summer Davos AMNC 2024 in China but could only participate online; I congratulate WEF for an excellent program, and if you missed the 'US-China Relations Analysed' discussion
with Robin Niblett, Lynn Kuok, Li Cheng, Keyu Jin, Graham Allison &
Danny Quah is a must-watch.
I contributed a perspective on ''How Sri Lanka views the Indo-Pacific Strategy' at the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies, moderated by Monish Tourangbam.
. Senior journalist Neena Gopal at The New Indian Express spoke to me on China’s stranglehold on Sri Lanka: What does it mean for India? One week before the Indian election results, Sri Lankan journalist Asoka Dias interviewed me on Indian Foreign Policy under Modi 3.0 and Dr. Jaishankar's Janus Strategy.
'Why Bharat Matters', Jaishankar's book, is a valuable contribution and an attempt to draw a framework for thinking about India as a civilisational resurging power in Asia. I was invited to speak about applying Ramayana to present-day foreign policy and geopolitics at the US House of Representatives by HinduACTion, where I referred to Jaishankar's book and his foreign policy style as the unapologetic Indian, proudly Hindu, unabashedly nationalist conveying that India is taking its rightful place among the major powers as a civilisational state, fulfilling Modi's vision. Further, Jaishankar's foreign policy has impacted the neighbourhood. To understand the complexity of the India-Russia joint management contract on the Chinese-built airport in Sri Lanka, I raised a question from two Senior Scholars at Hudson Institute, Walter Russell Mead and Aparna Pande; click here to listen to what they said about India's non-aligned policy and strategic autonomy.
In Sri Lanka, I met with the former President of Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who was ousted by a people's uprising in 2022. The meeting was due to a review I published in the Colombo Telegraph. The conversation lasted for nearly two hours at his private residence in Colombo, where he explained the foreign policy and external geopolitical factors behind his dismissal, which is also captured from his book 'The Conspiracy'. Gotabya blames his close advisors for misleading policies. Even my own dismissal from the Security Research Institute(INSS) was orchestrated by one such advisor, Secretary of Defence Kamal Gunaratne, explained Gotabaya. I thank the former President for presenting his book 'The Conspiracy' and sharing valuable insights on how external factors impact the Executive Office of Sri Lanka, especially his positive view on the Indian spymaster Ajit Doval and other nations' intelligence operations in Sri Lanka. Conversations with Sri Lankan Presidents, from my experience, are always a bitter pill to digest
and require deep analysis.
There was a hyped-up concern about the security threat of ISIS re-emerging
after four Sri Lankans were arrested in Ahamadabad in India. According to the media, the terrorists were funded by Pakistan. The story was one week before the final Indian election results. While some terrorist experts believe it is an ISIS threat, I had my doubts about it. I discussed views on Sri Lanka's National Security Challenges with Chamuditha Samarawickrama.
Please visit the South Asia Foresight Network(SAFN) in Washington, DC, to read the latest commentaries from our researchers. This month, we will begin with a valuable analysis by SAFN Senior Fellow Dr.Reena Marwah
on Modi’s Milestones - Riding the Rainbow.
As always, you can keep up with my latest writings, appearances, book talks & analysis at www.asangaabey.com and find me on social media.
Thank you for subscribing to my mailing list; if you receive this newsletter & have not subscribed, I invite you to join today.
Warm Regards,
Asanga Abeyagoonasekera
