A review and commentary on topical matters concerning the science, economics, and governance associated with climate change developments.

By Alan Moran

November 2017

Developments in the science

Just in time for 23rd UN Climate Change Conference (COP23) in Bonn, WMO released its annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, showing CO2 levels up 3.3 parts per million in 2016 to an average level of 403.3 ppm. They are set to rise by 30 per cent and, according to UN Environment, bring 3.0-3.2°C increase by the end of the century. Frustrating the doomsters, however, Hadley Centre data (but not that of UAH) indicates temperature levels fell back to their long term norm in September.

In a further blow to the alarmists, Anthony Watts reports Warmista Gavin Schmidt has been forecasting ever higher oceanic temperatures. But the data shows all measures dipping below 2015 levels.

Hurricanes Schmurricanes. All the talk about increased Atlantic hurricanes in the wake of Harvey and Irma fail to examine the global picture which is as follows

Pacific hurricanes are at their quietest on record.

Energy policy developments: Global

Prepared by a staff of 34 and assisted by dozens of consultations, the messianic International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new report on energy in South East Asia (excludes China and India) estimates that under current policies fossil fuels, presently at 77 per cent of supply, will rise to 79 per cent. Under its preferred “sustainable development scenario” of subsidies and regulations the fossil fuel share would fall to 59 per cent. For electricity, under business-as-usual IEA forecasts coal would supply 50 per cent with wind/solar at 3 per cent; under the “sustainable development scenario” coal would be 6 per cent and wind/solar 24 per cent.

The World Bank is a far more powerful institution than the IEA but with Barack Obama nominated Jim Yong Kim as its president, its emphasis has switched from lifting the world's poor out of poverty to prioritising 'environmental sustainability', not least by banning investment in cheap, reliable fossil fuel power sources. Jim Yong Kim got a second five year term in September 2016.

Energy policy developments: North America

The repeal proposal for the Obama Clean Power Plan asserts that the US would save $33 billion by not complying with the regulation and rejects the health benefits the Obama administration had calculated from the original rule.

Michael Bloomberg is unimpressed and has announced a further funding of $64 million to support the Sierra Club's "Beyond Coal" campaign and other organizations to help move the United States off of coal power altogether.

The Canadian government is requiring the provinces to set a carbon tax starting at $10 per tonne and rising to $50 per tonne by 2022. Stating this as excessive, Manitoba has set a tax at $25 per tonne on coal, gas and petrol which it says will cost the average family $356 per year.

Energy policy developments: Australia

Tony Abbott’s London address to the Global Warming Policy Foundation had immediate effects in modifying the previous agenda calling for more renewable subsidies into one that is calling for their halt when the current program finishes in 2020 and requiring retailers contracting for intermittent generation to have “firming” power insurance. Australia's Government naturally said the two events were unrelated. 

The Australian policy changed in response to a recognition of the inconsistencies between more renewable subsidies and cheaper power, which I addressed here and here. The new policy waters down the proposal to shift to 42 per cent renewables. It seems to cap the subsidised renewables at 16 per cent of supply by 2020 (the 23 per cent renewable share includes 7 per cent commercial hydro). But, confusingly, the government is also talking of a 26-34 per cent share by 2030. The policy also requires retailers to ensure specific shares of “despatchable” power but the meaning of this is unclear as it could cover batteries immediately available for 5 minutes or gas available within 10 minutes but then in use for hours.

Doubtless a factor conditioning Australian policy is voter opinions. In a recent survey, a majority of respondents said they would prefer to abandon the Paris Accord in light of US departure, if this were to result in cheaper electricity. However as many as 40 per cent said they would prefer to pay more.

Renewable energy propagandists claim that wind is now competitive with coal. But, following the Australian government decision not to subsidise additional renewables post 2020, Deutsche Bank has downgraded value of renewables formerly in the pipeline placing no value to undeveloped pipeline of more than 1500MW of wind projects and 140MW of solar projects in Australia showing investors consider that renewables cannot compete without subsidies, a view the industry lobby group seems to accept.

Climate politics

Perpetually tanned French lawyer-politician, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde has warned. “we will be toasted, roasted and grilled” if the world fails to take “critical decisions” on climate change.

Moonbeam Californian Governor Brown is taking Trump to court to try to prevent his reversal of the Obama greenhouse mitigating measures . He says “California is beginning to burn up” and he will “stabilise the ship of state”. Seven Portuguese children are going further and suing the EU for the effects climate change are having on their lives, and they are joined by 21 plaintiffs who are going to sue President Trump (no stories yet of a more meaningful lawsuit, one that seeks damages for the adverse effects these policies have on future living standards!). And with no sense of irony, Patti Smith is leading a coterie of jet-setting performers in a Paris protest concert to combat backsliding on the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Trump was unimpressed by this fervour and nominated as White House senior adviser for environmental policy, Kathleen Hartnett White, who has described the belief in "global warming" as a "kind of paganism" for "secular elites". EPA Director Scott Pruitt is equally unperturbed and has disowned a 2009 paper from his agency suggesting there were dangers of climate change.

Unfortunately Trump has however adopted “swamp like” policies by maintaining the subsidies to ethanol for gasoline to pander to vested interests especially in Iowa.

It is said that an estimated 1.9 million U.S. homes could be flooded by 2100 if seas rise 6 feet in response to climate change according to a US real estate business. That's a big if and an outcome that even the IPCC said would take 600 years!

The pier of Northern England’s famous seaside resort, Blackpool, is also listed as threatened by such a calamity. Perhaps that’s why the BBC has apologised for airing the truthful fact offered by Lord Lawson that temperatures had not risen over the past 17 years. As Andrew Montford points out “the BBC didn’t apologise for allowing Al Gore to utter his wild claims about the climate in the same Today programme segment, why they never challenge the absurd statements greens make about fracking (indeed BBC journalists were at the forefront of disseminating them)”. Lord Lawson’s view is shared by over 400 peer reviewed papers published in this year alone.

Australian governments expropriated rural land expropriation for emission reduction purposes. A conservative government in Queensland reversed this and the left wing government now seeking re-election has plans to reimpose it claiming, “Some 45 million tonnes of emissions is generated in Queensland alone by land clearing. That more than wipes out the Federal Government’s $1.5 billion Emissions Reduction Fund.”

Ruminations

The Motley Fool considers climate change requires investors to rethink their portfolios and the unfortunately named Frank Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of America, in discussing snowmobiles said, "It is clear that global warming could bankrupt the industry."

Desmogblog accuses BP and Shell, two of the world’s greatest vanity signallers, of duplicity by talking climate action but not investing in it - who’da thought firms would act in the interests of their shareholders? BP (but not Shell) is among the 1073 companies reporting their progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with the goals of the Paris agreement.

But there may be a sense of boredom setting in about the disaster hype. "Geostorm", the latest climate alarmist flick has bombed.  Just like Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth sequel, "Truth to Power", it failed to resonate with viewers. Alarmists clearly need to reinvigorate their cause. As Miss Jean Brodie said of her pupils, “Give me a girl at an impressionable age and she is mine for life”. But because Australian children are claimed to be typically 16 before the education system starts indoctrinating teaching them about climate change, the Australian National University is working on material for 12-14 year olds that claims to present the issues “in a politics-and emotion-free zone”.

Support Climate News

If you would like to make a financial contribution to ensure its continued output click here