The kids are now back in school and we are enjoying the last few days of August.  We recently received some much needed rain and these pretty rain lilies (pictured above) popped up in our yard.  We enjoyed them while they lasted as we know that we are entering the time of season where things will start to change.  It's still hot but it will start to cool down, the leaves will turn and then drop as fall will arrive.  We are definitely seeing some signs of the cooling of the real estate market in North Texas.  The double-digit price increases that we have experienced the last few years are now just low single-digit increases.  The inventories are slightly up and marketing times are lengthening.  Some of this is certainly seasonal as the market typically does cool this time of year, however when looking at the data compared to the same time last year we are seeing some signs of slowing down.  Here's a look at this month's numbers:    

JULY 2018

Denton County
$320,000 | +5.9%

Collin County
$342,000 | +5.2%

Dallas County
$249,100 | +7.3%

Tarrant County
$239,000 | +6.2%

All four counties are still showing price increases YoY but these increases are single-digit percentages which are less than the double-digit percentages we had seen last year.  A chart showing the median sales price for the past ten years has been provided for a more historical perspective on how much and how fast the prices in North Texas have risen. 

JULY 2018

Denton County
3.1 | +10.7%

Collin County
3.7 | +19.4%

Dallas County
2.6 | 0.0%

Tarrant County
2.4 | +9.1%

Inventory is up in Denton, Collin and Tarrant Counties. Dallas County is flat YoY.  Increasing inventory is a sign of the market slowing but it is noted that the month's supply is still between 2 and 3 months.  Supply less than 3 months is typically considered an undersupply.  The market is still considered to be in undersupply but if this trend continues it will start to be more balanced. 

•JULY 2018

•Denton County
1,419 | -2.5%

•Collin County
1,640 | -1.1%

•Dallas County
2,180 | -4.0%

•Tarrant County
2,711 | +0.2%

When looking at volume, the number of sales is down for all counties with the exception of Tarrant County.  This trend is only slight but it also is a sign of cooling. 

JULY 2018

Denton County
18 | +50.0%

Collin County
19 | +35.7%

Dallas County
13 | +8.3%

Tarrant County
11 | 0.0%

The number of days on the market has increased in Denton, Collin, and Dallas counties.  The number of days on the market for Tarrant County is flat YoY.   The median number of days for properties is still low but if this trend continues the market will slow as marketing times are lengthened.   

Takeaway 

The median sale prices are still increasing in all four counties but we are seeing signs of an increase in supply, increase in marketing times and a decrease in the number of sales.  These changes are very subtle but bear watching.  As mortgage rates have been increasing and many are getting priced out of the market, affordability may be a key factor impacting the markets here in North Texas. We will continue to watch these trends to see if they continue.  Sign up for our newsletter and we'll keep you informed!

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