2022 SPECIAL EDITION

 Spotlight on AI, Climate and Conflict

Curated by AI for Peace 

WHY A SPECIAL EDITION ON BIG DATA, AI, ML, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND CONFLICT?

A decade of research on climate change and conflict appears to have produced more confusion than knowledge. Although there has been remarkable progress in data availability and quality, the research produced many different, even opposing, and incompatible findings. While some were claiming that climate change and global warming cause conflict, others were proving such causations is not existing.

What we know is that poverty, weak governance, and a history of fighting are well-established risk factors for conflict. At the same time, the likelihood of violent conflict is correlated and reduced by democracy, strong social protection systems, effective justice systems, and the protection of property rights. The influence of climate change on these factors has been part of research for some time now, but further investigation of these correlations is necessary to guide policymakers in sustaining peace in the time of climate change and natural disasters. 

‘Big data’ analytics, the collection, and analysis of large amounts of data is having a transformative impact on scientific research and brings potentials for advancements in climate-conflict research. A group of computer scientists, including those from DeepMind, Google AI, and Harvard, highlights how machine learning could be utilized to tackle climate change, from climate modeling to climate impacts and adaptation. Although using ML in modeling the global climate systems is not new, ML techniques are still emerging in the socioeconomic aspect of climate change, including climate-conflict research, where many expect an immensely positive impact. 

Recently, the energy consumption of AI systems, specifically machine learning, has come under scrutiny. Between 2012 and 2018, the computation required for deep learning research has doubled, resulted in an estimated 300,000x increase. Any application of ML in climate change mitigation and adaptation needs to ensure that environmental impacts are not externalized onto the most marginalized populations. This newsletter aims to raise awareness of the promise and perils of AI for climate-conflict research and build more informed climate and conflict-aware technologists, data scientists, designers, engineers, and technology activists.

REGISTER FOR THE CONFERENCE 

Sustaining Peace Amidst the Climate Crisis: The Role of Data Science, Technology & Innovation,

2-3 May 2022

From 2-3 May 2022, the German Federal Foreign Office and the U.S. Department of State will host the hybrid conference 'Sustaining Peace Amidst the Climate Crisis: The Role of Data Science, Technology & Innovation'. The conference, which will be held in a hybrid format, will focus on the role of data science, technology & innovation in sustaining peace amidst the climate crisis.

Over the course of two days, high-level ministers, policy experts, scientists and researchers will convene to discuss topics such as: vulnerabilities and conflict dynamics in their regional contexts, the role of climate risk factors in defining the future of peacebuilding and crisis prevention, the potential of data science for early warning systems and innovative response solutions, as well as ways to build new partnerships and break silos between data scientists, researchers and policy experts.

ARTICLES WE RECOMMEND

What does the IPCC report tell us about climate and conflict? 7 March 2022

Whilst at first sight it may not seem explicitly so, the new IPCC report contains a lot of important findings on the links between climate change and conflict. They underline and confirm important lessons that have been emerging from recent research: climate change does contribute to increased conflict, but along indirect pathways and via intermediate factors such as governance. Adapting to and mitigating climate change can also play an important role in addressing many drivers of conflict and building peace.

On the Horizon 2022 | Environmental Change and Security, 7 January 2022

Around the world, record levels of displacement, conflict, and the increasing devastation of accelerating climate change have caused many to wonder if the world is heading toward a more violent and unstable future. Between 2010 and the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of major armed conflicts tripled, and experts forecast that the pandemic’s impact could drive even more countries into conflict and poverty. Researchers predict that by 2030, climate change could push 100 million more people into poverty, and by 2050, drive as many as 216 million from their homes. It is already a phenomenon: the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center estimates that 21.5 million people per year over the past decade have had to flee their homes due to storms, floods, wildfires, droughts, and other weather events.

Conflict due to climate change: a univariate causal analysis, 9 August 2021

In this series of blog posts, we will try to investigate the role of climate change in the conflict in Ethiopia using various quantitative methods. Our research approach will be from simple to complex where we first implement a descriptive and correlation analysis between climate change as approximated by changes in drought index (Evaporative Stress Index) and conflict as the occurrence of armed conflict events over some time. In future posts, we will relax this assumption to see the effect of various factors such as demographic and economic variables on conflict and by implementing advanced mathematical and machine learning algorithms.

Why tackling climate change is vital to peace, 18 February 2021

Climate change has resulted in slow-onset changes like gradual temperature increases, rising sea levels, biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, land and forest degradation, and salinization. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are also increasing, including floods, droughts, wildfires, and extreme heatwaves. These changes result in social, economic, and political fragility. Moreover, stifled crop production, increased poverty, and displacement undermine attempts to implement necessary policy reforms, resulting in a vicious cycle.

Big Data Applications for Climate-Conflict Research, PRIO, 10 January 2020

For climate scientists, the utility of big data is not new. ML has seen use for some time in modeling the global climate system. But big data techniques are still emerging in the socio-economic aspects of climate research, and here lies the big potential for big data according to a recent paper published in Nature Climate Change. And by extension, I make the case below for how big data could have a positive impact on quantitative climate-conflict research. These implications should be tested in the future.

Climate change as a contributor to human conflict, 28 March 2018

To our knowledge, no one in the field of climate research has suggested that climate change could be the “sole cause” of war, violence, unrest, or migration (see Nature 554, 275–276; 2018). We argue that viewing climate change instead as a risk multiplier, influencer or co-factor can help to inform rather than inflame this important discussion.

Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration, 6 April 2021

Results from a machine-learning prediction framework reveal that drought and temperature anomalies are weak predictors of asylum migration, challenging simplistic notions of climate-driven refugee flows. Instead, core contextual characteristics shape latent migration potential whereas political violence and repression are the most powerful predictors of time-varying migration flows. Future asylum migration flows are likely to respond much more to political changes in vulnerable societies than to climate change.

Climate–conflict research: some reflections on the way forward, 18 February 2015

Ten years of generalizable quantitative research on climate change and armed conflict appears to have produced more confusion than knowledge. This is not to say that the research is either empirically sloppy or poorly executed analytically. On the contrary, there has been remarkable progress concerning data availability and quality as well as statistical sophistication over the years. Yet, the ‘cacophony of different findings’1 in the field signals a failure to converge on a single robust association between climate and conflict, and several opposing and seemingly incompatible patterns have been reported.

PODCASTS 

DISPLACED: Climate Change: How Global Warming Exacerbates Conflict

As climate change causes rapid and large-scale migration, countries already facing environmental challenges become increasingly vulnerable to instability and humanitarian crisis. Sherri Goodman, Senior Fellow at the Wilson Center and former U.S. Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Environmental Security, describes climate change as a threat multiplier. This week she joins Grant and Ravi to discuss how climate change is linked to conflicts happening now, and what it might lead to in the future.

Displaced is a production by the International Rescue Committee and Vox Media. You can read more about this episode in our show notes.

THE HORN: A Vicious Cycle: Climate and Conflict in the Horn of Africa

Extreme weather events in Africa are becoming increasingly common, often striking in areas already prone to insecurity and scarcity. While the relationship between climate and security is both complex and context-specific, the broad risks are clear: modelling shows that temperature increases of as little as half a degree could, in some contexts, lead to a 10-20 per cent increase in the risk of violence. Erratic weather has already contributed to conflicts across the Horn – from Somalia to Kenya and South Sudan – a clear demonstration of climate change’s impact as a threat multiplier, exacerbating insecurity and existing tensions.

This week on The Horn, guest host Nicolas Delaunay, Crisis Group’s senior communications officer for Africa, is joined by Nazanine Moshiri, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for climate & security, to untangle this complex relationship and its implications for the continent. They break down how changing weather patterns and natural disasters have shaped, and sometimes triggered, conflicts in Somalia, Kenya and South Sudan, often in very different ways. They also discuss the need for better adaptation measures and ask how Africa can best reckon with climate change, stressing the urgency of putting climate security on the agenda ahead of COP27.

Bringing IHL home: the protection of the environment in war

When international law addresses a particular issue of concern, ultimately the intention is to have some kind of real impact on that issue. In the case of armed conflict and the environment, the aim is to enhance the protection of the natural environment from the negative effects of war. In this post, which is part of a special series on war, law and the environment co-hosted with the Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS), Jani Leino, legal advisor for the Finnish Red Cross, examines the nuts and bolts of effective domestic implementation of international humanitarian law (IHL) in Finland and identifies six corresponding ingredients for success.

Voices for Peace and Conservation

Voices for Peace and Conservation offers inspiring stories from people who are working to save nature while also promoting peace – from the plains of Northern Kenya to international conference rooms in Switzerland. As the world wakes up to the twin emergencies of climate change and biodiversity loss, it is increasingly clear how closely peace, conflict, environment and conservation issues are connected. Our guests demonstrate how bringing responses to these challenges closer together should and can be done. This podcast is a collaboration between Conservation International (CI), the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), PeaceNexus Foundation and the World Wide Fund for Nature Germany

ICRC INRECROSS Climate: The Invisible Front Line in Conflict Zones

Sea levels are rising. Heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires are more frequent, more intense, and threatening the survival of humanity. In a brand-new episode of Intercross, we hear from our communications colleague in London, Sam Smith, who’s been closely following this story for the past year, writing about the very real human impacts of climate change in a conflict zone.

ORGANIZATIONS 

Environmental Peacebuilding

Environmental peacebuilding integrates natural resource management in conflict prevention, mitigation, resolution, and recovery to build resilience in communities affected by conflict. Join our growing global community of researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers in sharing experiences and lessons from managing natural resources in conflict-affected settings, accessing new research on the topic, and participating in events to support the growing network of professionals active in environmental peacebuilding.

OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data - Developing Triggers for Anticipatory Action

The United Nations and the Governments of Germany and the United Kingdom are convening a High-Level event on 9 September 2021 to advance anticipatory action and galvanize a collective push to act ahead of crises. The event will showcase compelling examples of this anticipatory approach and generate support to scale action. The Centre is responsible for developing the trigger mechanism for many of the existing anticipatory action frameworks. This video explains our work with an example from Bangladesh. Read more here.

International Crisis Group (ICC) Climate Change and Conflict

The relationship between climate change and deadly conflict is complex and context-specific, but it is undeniable that climate change is a threat multiplier that is already increasing food insecurity, water scarcity and resource competition, while disrupting livelihoods and spurring migration. In turn, deadly conflict and political instability are contributing to climate change – including through illegal logging. Crisis Group’s work on climate change and conflict relies on field-based research and analysis to provide insights into how policymakers might best influence and respond to these complex changes to mitigate conflict risks.

PAX: Building peace by protecting the environment

PAX has joined forces with several other NGOs to launch ‘Witnessing the Environmental Impacts of War’, a special publication made for the 2020 International Day for Preventing the Exploitation of the Environment in War and Armed Conflict. With case studies from Iraq, Syria, Colombia, Yemen, Ukraine, Laos DPR, and Senegal, the publication provides a snapshot of environments impacted by active conflict, post-conflict governance gaps, and humanitarian efforts to restore usable lands. The stories tell a tale of the often complex relationship between armed conflict and its environmental footprint that lingers long after the guns fell silent.

SIPRI – Environment of Peace

The environment of Peace will synthesize the best available evidence on environmental change and its societal impacts. It will present new insights on the risks, challenges, and promising solutions. And it will illuminate pathways for policy and action. The initiative will release a major report in 2022, marking 50 years since the landmark United Nations Conference on the Human Environment (the Stockholm Conference).

Geneva Peacebuilding Platform: Environment, Climate, Conflict, and Peace

As part of its mandate on community management, the Geneva Peacebuilding Platform aims to strengthen networking and community building in different topics within the peacebuilding sector. The Geneva Dialogue on Environment, Climate, Conflict, and Peace aims to foster inter-institutional collaboration and dialogue, promote shared learning and innovation, and mainstream these topics across the board between the environment, climate, conservation, conflict, security, and peace sectors. These goals are achieved through three primary activities: briefings and convenings, the development of a White Paper on Environmental Peacebuilding, and the Geneva contribution towards the Environmental Peacebuilding Association’s Second International Conference on Environmental Peacebuilding.

Weathering Risk

The Weathering Risk project uses an innovative methodology that unpacks the complex relationship between climate change and insecurity and identifies entry points for action. Weathering Risk aims to ensure that all relevant policies and decision-making have

access to and are better informed by evidence-based analysis on climate change-related

security risks, now and in the future. We will identify short-, medium-, and long-term

threats to peace and wellbeing, and geopolitical and diplomatic relationships.

To fulfill this objective, a multi-tiered climate and security risk, and foresight assessment

will be carried out by Adelphi and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Water Pace and Security

Water insecurity is increasing worldwide. In response to these threats the Water, Peace, and Security partnership develops innovative tools and services that help identify water-related security risks and allow stakeholders to take action at an early stage.

The Center For Climate And Security – Exploring The Security Risks of Climate Change

CCS envisions a climate-resilient world that recognizes that climate change threats to security are already significant, unprecedented, and potentially existential, and acts to address those threats in a manner that is commensurate to their scale, consequence, and probability.

WEBINARS AND VIDEOS

2nd International Conference on Environmental Peacebuilding, 2-4 FEBRUARY 2022

The Environmental Peacebuilding Association (EnPAx) is delighted to announce that the Second International Conference on Environmental Peacebuilding was held in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 2-4, 2022, convened in partnership with the Centre on Conflict, Development, and Peacebuilding (CCDP), Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies; the Geneva Peacebuilding Platform; the Geneva Water Hub, University of Geneva; the Geneva Environment Network; and the United Nations Environment Programme. Conference recordings are available here.

Berlin Climate and Security Conference - Moving From Analysis to Action: How to Get Policy-makers at Different Governance Levels to Conflict Prevention Action, 7 October 2021

This event focused on how to move from identifying water- and climate-related conflict risks and forecasting current and future climate and water conflict hotspots to designing and implementing conflict prevention and mitigating action. Its main aim was to investigate how the various analytical tools available for understanding climate and water security risks can be used in an effective and targeted manner to not only inform but to actually trigger action on the ground – by actors from the local, national, and international level. It did so by discussing how different analytical tools available have already or can in the future guide climate and water security interventions, ultimately calling for moving from analysis to action.

Making Sense of Climate Data for Peacebuilding, 7 October 2021

It is well established that climate change impacts can pose risks to peace by undermining human security and increasing the impacts of other drivers of conflict and fragility. Thanks to growing availability of high-quality data and computational capacities, our ability to enhance the understanding of the complex, context-specific impacts of climate change on current and future security risks are also growing. Providing practitioners with data-driven insights about the full range of those impacts is crucial to improve anticipatory action to avoid and reduce those risks. In this panel discussion, speakers presented climate data products from the AGRICA Project, which provides accessible climate information for operational responses. Furthermore, the session discussed its contribution and suitability towards achieving risk-informed operations with practitioners.

Predicting conflicts: the Water, Peace & Security Partnership Early Warning Tool, 9 July 2021

​As linkages between water and conflict have received heightened attention, socio-technological advancements are increasingly seen as means to help relevant actors to identify, analyze and take steps to address water-related conflicts. In this session, the Water, Peace, and Security partnership presents its ‘Global Early Warning Tool’. The Tool uses machine learning, remote sensing, and multiple data sources to predict conflict events 12 months in advance. 

Establishing best practices in climate security modeling & weathering risk, 9 July 2021

There is plenty of data to assess for environmental, climate, and security issues. The challenge lies in the complex indirect impacts of environmental events: to provide practitioners with spatially-explicit risks and actionable insights. Capacity is growing among many civil society organizations, governments, academia, and international organizations to provide relevant data-driven insights to support decision-making and programming around climate, environment, peace, and security. However, full quantitative predictive early-warning early-action has not been achieved in the climate and environmental security field.

PUBLICATIONS 

Addressing the Climate-Conflict Nexus: Evidence, Insights, and Future Directions, Mercy Corps, 5 January 2022

Written from the perspective of an agency with active programs addressing climate change, conflict and their interaction around the world, this paper aims to share our learning and make evidence-based recommendations on investments we see as necessary for driving this work forward, and how Mercy Corps is contributing to these focal areas. The following insights draw heavily from Mercy Corps’ experience and lessons learned from delivering programs in multi-risk environments. We share details on current efforts to advance the evidence base and develop new strategies to understand and address the increasing risks emerging from the intersection of climate change and conflict.

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet Iraq (April 2022), NUPI, April 2022

Iraq is highly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. The country’s vulnerability is shaped by its physical exposure, a strong natural resource dependency and low adaptive capacity due to violent conflict, poverty, political instability and corruption. Iraq is particularly exposed to floods, droughts and dust storms, increasingly linked to temperature and precipitation variability.

A White Paper on the Future of Environmental Peacebuilding: Nurturing an ecosystem for peace, 2022

The White Paper on the Future of Environmental Peacebuilding is the product of an 18-month process of research and consultation with environmental peacebuilding practitioners, researchers, and policymakers from all regions. It aims to deliver a strong, cogent message about the relevance, evidence, and promise of environmental peacebuilding to the Stockholm+50 forum in June 2022. This project was developed not only to advance a policy agenda for environmental peacebuilding, but also to foster inter-institutional collaboration and shared innovation for the field.

Fit for purpose? The rapid development of water allocation models using global data: Application for the Upper Niger Basin, November 2021

When decision-making in the case of imminent water-related humanitarian disasters or violent conflict depends on a quick assessment of water-related risks, there may not be enough time to collect high-quality local data. Online available global data may offer an alternative data source. We present a method to construct a water resources model based on global datasets. We apply it to the Upper Niger Basin in West Africa and test its credibility with hydrological performance metrics and ‘fit for purpose’ indicators.

Global Climate Risk Index 2021, 25 January 2021

The Global Climate Risk Index 2021 analyses and ranks to what extent countries and regions have been affected by impacts of climate related extreme weather events (storms, floods, heatwaves etc.). The most recent data available for 2019 and from 2000 to 2019 was taken into account.

10 Insights on Climate Impacts and Peace, June 2020

Climate change is one of the most pressing political issues of our time. The unprecedented nature and scale of its impacts on people, economies, and ecosystems worldwide are becoming clearer as science advances. One critical dimension of these impacts is their effect on international peace and security. his new report synthesizes and contextualizes the existing scientific evidence to set out ten insights, which brief policymakers on the current knowledge of security risks related to climate change. The 10 Insights, ranging from the peace and security implications of climate impacts on livelihoods and human mobility to the unintended consequences of poorly designed climate and security policies themselves, lay the groundwork for the German Foreign Office-supported Climate Security Risk and Foresight Assessment that will be launched at the Berlin Climate and Security Conference.

Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning, 5 November 2019

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning experts, may wonder how we can help. Here we describe how machine learning can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, we identify high-impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by machine learning, in collaboration with other fields. Our recommendations encompass exciting research questions as well as promising business opportunities. We call on the machine learning community to join the global effort against climate change.

The carbon impact of artificial intelligence, 12 August 2020

The part that artificial intelligence plays in climate change has come under scrutiny, including from tech workers themselves who joined the global climate strike last year. Much can be done by developing tools to quantify the carbon cost of machine learning models and by switching to a sustainable artificial intelligence infrastructure.

When Rain Turns To Dust - Understanding And Responding To The Combined Impact Of Armed Conflicts And The Climate And Environment Crisis On People’s Lives, 7 July 2020

Countries affected by armed conflict are disproportionately vulnerable to climate variability and change, because the adaptive capacity of people, systems and institutions already coping with the consequences of conflict tend to be limited. This report is based on research conducted in southern Iraq, northern Mali, and the interior of the Central African Republic. It draws on the expertise of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), and on the literature on the subject, to explore how people experience conflict and climate risks in combination, and how they cope and adapt. It discusses what the ICRC, and the humanitarian sector as a whole, must do to address these risks and makes an urgent call for strengthening climate action and finance in conflict-affected countries.

Environment, climate and fragility: Spatial data to support analysis of the Sahel and West Africa,

The purpose of this story map is to identify relevant datasets currently in the data catalogue that can be used in further risk analysis. It also identifies the gaps in spatial data availability and potential next analytical steps on this topic.

A Toolkit for Addressing Climate Fragility Risks, 27 November 2019

o address climate security challenges, UN Environment, the European Union and adelphi developed a toolkit to support the development and implementation of strategies, policies, and projects that seek to build resilience, focusing on the pilot countries Sudan and Nepal.

Online Library 

On our website, AI for Peace, you can find even more awesome content, podcasts, articles, white papers and book suggestions that can help you navigate through AI and peace fields. Check our online library!