A review and commentary on topical matters concerning the science, economics, and governance associated with climate change developments.

By Alan Moran

1 April 2018

Science

A study of recent papers on climate by Kenneth Richard showed nothing much is happening. Among new studies, Polovodova Asteman et al reconstructed this temperature trend for Europe showing there is nothing remarkable about current temperatures. 

This is further borne out by recent historical data covering tropical storms in the Australian region. The dominant role is el Niño and, if anything, the severity of storms is decreasing.

On the topic of hurricanes, the BBC was forced to grudgingly amend a comment it made saying increased hurricane activity was an outcome of climate change but the government broadcaster did not, of course, refer to the evidence that there had been no change in the frequency of hurricanes.

Reinforcing all this, a new report by eminent scientist, Professor Humlum finds, “It is clear that temperatures in the troposphere are continuing to diverge from surface temperatures. In other words, they are warming more slowly than global warming theory says they should.”

Politics and diplomacy

The resignation of White House chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, is one of a number of departures of advisers who favour re-engagement with the Paris Climate Change agreement. Others have included George Banks who handled international energy issues.

Americans are becoming more polarised on climate change with Democrats increasingly concerned and Republicans increasingly shrugging their shoulders.

A public nuisance lawsuit by San Francisco and Oakland against oil companies claims that the companies knew that their products emit CO2 and that this causes climate change so they should pay up. Tony Thomas forensically addressed the case here.  The Judge dismissed a conspiracy claim but trial lawyers sensing $$$ are continuing to press. Three prominent scientists delivered a report saying, “human influences on the climate are a small (1%) perturbation to natural energy flows”. Next case is against Mattel for creating Barbie and reinforcing gender stereotypes!

The EU has released its COUNCIL CONCLUSIONS ON CLIMATE DIPLOMACY. Alongside the usual diplomatic mush about “gender equality, women´s empowerment and women´s full and equal participation and leadership” it is calling upon China to take a stronger role and to extend emission control measures to aviation and shipping. China has already indicated it wants “built-in flexibility” to do nothing that might harm its own interests, a move supported by India and other non-OECD countries.

Is the EU also cracking? Perhaps so - German coalition changes downgrade the leadership role the nation has previously played in the EU with the Greens relegated. Moreover Germany, in spite of de-industrialising, has not maintained the downward momentum it promised as part of the EU’s 2015 Paris Agreement pledge of a 40 per cent reduction on 1990 levels.

And more widely, the EU carbon allowance price ($) having recently been at €14 per tonne, has fallen to €1.50 per tonne

Economics

There are reports that a Russian attack group sent thousands of tweets against US pipelines to stir up opposition to them (the success of which would be likely to hold up gas prices).

John Droz shows how the Trump administration is attempting to dismantle the blanket bans on east coast gas and oil exploration Obama put in place while activists are digging in to support promoting wind and reduced carbon emissions. Droz also has a handy analysis of all the deficiencies of wind. He says, “Trying to pin down the arguments of wind promoters is a bit like trying to grab a greased balloon. Just when you think you’ve got a handle on it, it morphs into a different story and escapes your grasp.”

According to the (not always reliable) International Energy Agency, the shale boom means the US growth in oil supply will cover 80 per cent of increased world demand over the next three years. Nations that deny themselves this technology prefer to be poorer.

Anti-fracking activists, in preventing the UK developing its own gas supply, have left the nation vulnerable to Russian economic pressure preventing an appropriate response to Russian state sponsored murder of its enemies in Britain.

Though the Australian Government has rejected a carbon tax, its proposed National Energy Guarantee places such an impost on retailers/generators. The South Australian Labor Government wished to go further but its electoral defeat changes this.

Moreover, Australia has a “Safeguard mechanism” under which 154 of the largest firms have a cap on their emissions. Sixteen facilities needed to buy credits last year at some $16 per tonne (the repealed carbon tax was set at $24 per tonne). Even so, and with all the costs entailed, as the Guardian demonstrates, Australia is way off track in meeting its Paris commitments of a 26-28 per cent reduction.

Alarmists and their allies have long maintained that nobody would invest in coal generation in Australia. The owner of the Liddell power station in New South Wales, AGL, which wants to close the generator to boost prices and its profits elsewhere, suddenly sees a buyer emerge ($). 

Last month I covered climate issues in the media in the Spectator, in Quadrant and in the Herald Sun.

Whimsy

Sir David Attenborough shows how the West Australian tiger sharks are doing their bit to prevent climate change – something to do with them hunting turtles who then don’t overgraze seagrass.

We are likely to face garment shortages through climate change - apparently a warmer Bangladesh will mean more flooding and fewer frocks – get it?

Scotland’s top chef suggests some changes to home kitchens to combat climate change, while WWF claims a bowl of lamb stew is as harmful in emissions as driving 31 miles, boiling a kettle 258 times or charging a smartphone 722 times.  Sheep farmers are outraged! but no word yet from Breville or Apple.

And, if you like your meals spicy you'd better get your fill quickly since climate change is threatening the production of tabasco sauce! 

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