Year-starter: Fifth Kwentong Mandaragat webinar on blue economy, success

Organized by the Foundation for the National Interest, together with the UP Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, with the support of The Asia Foundation and Amador Research Services, the fifth installment of the "Kwentong Mandaragat" webinar series was held on January 28, 2021. The fifth webinar discussed the concept of the blue economy.

ARS officially launches Philippine Strategic Forum, 16 January

ARS officially launched the Philippine Strategic Forum on Saturday, 16 January 2021. The platform serves as an avenue for dialogue on strategic issues facing the Philippines.

Philippine Coast Guard's evolving roles in national security

Jay Tristan Tarriela

For more than a decade, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) has emerged as a significant maritime force for the country's national security in various capacities. Due to PCG's steady increase of budget since 2008, it acquired modern assets and recruited additional troops... Some scholars perceived PCG as an appeasement strategy to deal with China; while at the same time being utilized to advance maritime cooperation with other countries, particularly with Japan and Southeast Asian countries.

Karagatan Observer:

January 2021

The Philippines and the Indo-Pacific region faced major developments in the world while continuing to deal with long-standings trends in the first month of 2021

Researchers from the Environmental Markets Solutions Lab, University of California, Santa Baraba (UCSB) found that "up to 26 percent of the approximately 16,000 industrial fishing vessels analyzed were at high risk of using forced labor" and "as many as 100,000 individuals are estimated to work on these high-risk vessels".

Researchers from the Environmental Markets Solutions Lab, University of California, Santa Baraba (UCSB) found that "up to 26 percent of the approximately 16,000 industrial fishing vessels analyzed were at high risk of using forced labor" and "as many as 100,000 individuals are estimated to work on these high-risk vessels".

The alliance of several countries and the US -- such as the Quad and other European nations -- have become more assertive in protecting freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. China argues that the increased presence of the respective navies is a violation of its national security and international law. Tensions will continue to rise as allied states participate in regional and US-led exercises.

The group Pinoy Action for Governance and the Environment (PAGE) wrote a letter to Sen. Richard Gordon, chair of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee, over the allegation of islands sold to China. The islands in question are the Grande and Chiquita islands off Subic Bay and Fuga Island in Cagayan which are reported to be developed by GFTG Property Holdings and Sanya CEDF Sino-Philippine Investment Corp for $298 million. PAGE asks for an investigation into the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority and Cagayan Economic Zone Authority in connection to this project.

The largest Chinese military transport plane landed on Kagitingan Reef, said to be the base of a district named by China in the West Philippine Sea. Maritime expert Prof. Jay Batongbacal speculates that the Chinese were testing the airfield and/or delivering supplies or personnel. Despite being the farthest artificial island from the Philippines, a fully operational airbase could place major Philippine installations within striking distance.

Britain, France, and Germany have announced plans to send a vessel each to the Indo-Pacific region. European interests in the region are to deter China and to exploit Japan's recent rise in defense spending, some defense analysts say. The issue of China is likely to strengthen security ties between Japan and the other states that comprise the Quad.

The Jiangnan shipyard based in Shanghai is beginning a three-year expansion of facilities and infrastructure, most of which will be focused on the navy’s aircraft carrier program. China’s third and fourth planned carriers are a new design called the Type 002 which are reported to feature electromagnetic catapults, a feature on many U.S. Navy aircraft carriers. The third Chinese carrier is expected to be completed within the first half of 2021 and the fourth is in the early stages.

COVID-19 has become an issue of national security. The AFP and the police have been “invaluable” in implementing security and lockdown measures in response to the pandemic. This added and prolonged responsibility increases the risk of armed personnel contracting the virus. It is imperative of the citizenry to be responsible and observe health measures. If not, the pandemic will hamper the military’s role in defending the nation in areas such as the West Philippine Sea.

Newly-installed Marine commandant Major General Ariel Caculitan inspected the Coastal Defense Regiment formed last August 7, 2020. The regiment is designed to protect the country’s shores from invasion and improve support for naval operations. The presentation included warfare simulation. The regiment is expected to acquire mobile, shore-based anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems by 2026.

Naval officials broke ground at the Naval Base Heracleo Alano in Sangley Point, Cavite City for the first of three planned new hangars. The Naval Air Wing is planning to build two hangars within the first five months of 2021. The growth of the fleet was brought about by an increase in maritime situational awareness. Future acquisitions include the multi-purpose amphibious aircraft, medium- and heavy-lift helicopters, and upgrades for naval helicopter weapons.

China made its eighth incursion since New Year’s Day into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on January 11, 2021. China has regularly sent planes into Taiwan’s ADIZ since mid-September 2020, most instances in the southwest corner of the zone.

The outgoing Trump administration imposed several sanctions on Chinese officials and companies for alleged actions committed in the South China Sea. Some of the allegations include use of coercion against rival claimant states. China has accused the U.S. of abusing its power in the region.

Senator Tolentino has called on the Department of Foreign Affairs for the country to assert its position in the West Philippines Sea after the Senate ratifies the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. He argues that some nuclear weapons may be present in Chinese-made islands in the West Philippine Sea. As a signatory of the treaty, the Philippines will have oversight over this matter.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with news agencies under the Presidential Communications and Operations Office, Chinese Ambassador to Manila Huang Xilian spoke of “three key messages”-- anti-pandemic efforts, post-pandemic economic recovery, and safeguarding sovereignty. Amb. Huang said that any differences between the two will be “properly managed” and echoed that the South China Sea issue does not represent the entirety of the relationship between the two countries. Just a week prior, Amb. Huang wrote an editorial on closer relations.

With the onset of a new Biden administration, the two countries would do well to “be wary of coping with their differences”. Any cooperation among states in the region should be taken under the guidance of the Code of Conduct. The U.S. will only try to advance its position on freedom of navigation and raise tensions in the South China Sea.

President Biden’s nominee for Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed support for former President Trump’s “tougher approach to China”. While he expressed disagreement with aspects of the approach’s execution, he says the basic principle was correct. President Biden’s nominee for Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines likewise supported an “aggressive stance”.

The new Biden administration is expected to reverse several policies and rhetoric of the Trump administration. However, it is unlikely that the current Indo-Pacific policy of security will change. The Quad has a vested interest in the region and will need U.S. support to see it through.

Philippine ambassador to the U.S. Jose Manuel Romualdez said that he was confident that the new U.S. administration under President Biden will recognize the 2016 Arbitration Award. He mentioned that the West Philippine Sea is “first and foremost” in policy, a shift that began in July 2020 under the previous Trump administration. He also expressed confidence that relations between the U.S. and the Philippines will continue as is.

China’s top legislative body passed the Coast Guard Law that explicitly allows China’s Coast Guard to fire on any foreign vessels, using “all necessary means.” Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua CHunying said that the law was in line with international norms. Some of the bills provisions include: specification of circumstances for different weaponry, allows the demolition of foreign structures in Chinese-claimed territory, and allows the creation of exclusion zones

Vaccine Czar Carlito Galvez Jr. said during a Senate hearing on January 22, 2021 that “differences should be set aside” in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, including the issue of the West Philippine Sea, in the interest of global safety. Senator Risa Hontiveros asked for clarification if this meant conceding national interests for the sake of “vaccine diplomacy”. He assured that the Philippine claims in the West Philippine Sea will not be compromised. China is set to supply 25 million vaccines to the Philippines while observers have warned that these may be used to push China’s regional agenda.

Taiwan’s ADIZ was once again intruded upon by 13 Chinese war planes, including bombers, the same day as the U.S. sent the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt into the South China Sea. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry noted that China has entered Taiwan’s ADIZ before, but the size and composition of this particular group was unusual. There is no evidence the two events are related.

Taiwan reports a “large incursion” by Chinese warplanes for the second consecutive day. The Defense Ministry identified the warplanes from the first day as consisting of eight bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons, four fighter jets, and one anti-submarine aircraft; whereas the second day had twelve fighters, two anti-submarine aircraft, and one reconnaissance plane. Analysts have claimed that China is testing the support for the new Biden administration for Taiwan.

Senators Richard Gordon and Francis Tolentino expressed alarm over China’s new Coast Guard Law which permits firing on non-Chinese vessels. Senator Gordon called it a “creeping threat that can escalate any time” and Senator Tolentino said that he worried for Filipino fishermen who could still be unaware of the new law. Some fisherfolk groups like Pambansang Lakas ng Kilusang Mamamalakaya (Pamalakaya) ng Pilipinas have called on the government to denounce the law. Pamalakaya chair Fernando Hicap called the law “an affront to national sovereignty.”

A 42-year-old Filipino fisherman Larry Hugo narrated the first time in his years of fishing that on January 25th a Chinese Coast Guard vessel barred him from entering a sandbar near Pag-asa Island. He spoke of how the Chinese vessel was accompanied by seven other vessels. They did not appear to be fishing ships.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Teddy Locsin Jr. filed a diplomatic protest against China’s new Coast Guard Law. This comes two days after Secretary Locsin initially dismissed the law as China’s business alone.

The new U.S. president Joe Biden reaffirmed to Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga of the U.S. commitment to defend Japan in the event of an attack. The two leaders agreed that the Senkaku Islands fall under Article 5 of the 1960 Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, this comes after the confirmation from both countries’ defense chiefs on January 24 and foreign ministers on January 27. The two leaders also agreed to coordinate with Australia and India as part of the Quad group in increasing defense cooperation.

Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said at a news briefing that Taiwan was an inseparable part of China and then warned against people in Taiwan pushing for independence. He said that “Taiwan independence means war.” Both the U.S. and Taiwan have reacted with the former reaffirming its defense of Taiwan and the latter stating its preparation to defend itself.

Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana expressed optimism for the new Biden administration and the continuation of the U.S.-Philippine relationship. The day before, Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken where they both reaffirmed the obligation of the alliance. Secretary Lorenzana cited former U.S. ambassador to Manila Sung Kim’s appointment to the U.S. State Department as reason for his hope.

Former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio says that any Code of Conduct is now dead on arrival due to the new Chinese Coast Guard Law. The President announced via his spokesman that ASEAN should finish the code still, regardless of the law. Justice Carpio however is skeptical that China will abide by it.

The Chinese research vessel Jia Geng was spotted off the coast of Bato, Catanduanes on January 28, having entered the Philippine exclusive economic zone three days ago on the 25th. The vessel claimed to be in the area to avoid bad weather. The Jia Geng had previously claimed the same thing when it was spotted in September 2020. As of its observation, it had not been granted a government permit.

Effective the next day, February 1, China’s new Coast Guard Law grants authorization to fire upon any non-Chinese vessel in disputed territory. University of the Philippines professor Jay Batongbacal says that this could possibly be an act of war. He stressed that ASEAN states, specifically among claimant countries, should provide a unified approach against the Coast Guard Law. He also states that this will hamper any further negotiation on a Code of Conduct. Senator Francis Tolentino called on the Philippines and other claimant states to issue a joint-protest before the United Nations.

Pambansang Lakas ng Kilusang Mamamalakaya (Pamalakaya) has called on Philippine authorities to punish the MV Zhonhai 68, a Chinese vessel seized on the January 27th off Orion Point, Bataan. The vessel’s automatic identification system transponder was turned off and a couple of Cambodian crew members did not have proper documents. Pamalakaya called on authorities to stop Chinese dredging vessels from operating in Philippine waters, citing last year’s incident when a similar vessel ran aground in Zambales.