I remain in the capital. I remain with my people. —Volodymyr Zelensky
The mood today is somber as Ukrainians continue their heroic resistance to Russian aggression. Their valor is humbling.
The war has also created an urgent sense of solidarity. "He has some shortcomings," a woman who would give only her first name, Ekaterina, said of Zelenskiy. "But given where our country is right now, in such fear,” she said. “We must unite. I support him very much at this moment. Because he is the nation’s leader. In difficult times, we must support our country." (David M. Herszenhorn, Ukraine’s 'servant of the people' Zelenskiy leads them in war, Politico, February 25, 2022)
The war is not going as the tyrant Putin and his generals anticipated. Russian soldiers have not been welcomed as liberators. Whole columns of tanks and armored vehicles have reportedly been wiped out with Russian soldiers captured or killed. Warplanes and helicopters have been shot down. Troops have been stranded on roadsides when their vehicles ran out of fuel. "Most critically, Russia has proved unable to secure air superiority over the tiny Ukrainian air force — despite having the second-largest air force in the world…Its troops have yet to take control of any significant city or meaningful chunk of territory." (Liz Sly, Dan Lamothe, The war in Ukraine isn’t working out the way Russia intended, Washington Post, February 27, 2022)
In cities throughout Russia thousands of antiwar protesters have taken to the streets at great risk to themselves. There are even reports of unrest among Russia's oligarchs.
The cracks are faint and fall short of suggesting any groundswell of oligarchic opposition to Putin, according to experts and Western officials. But expressions of unease that weeks ago seemed unthinkable have surfaced repeatedly in recent days.
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Even the daughter of Putin’s principal spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, voiced opposition to the invasion by posting a black square on her Instagram account with a caption, "No to war!" It was an apparently a message of solidarity with protesters in Russia even while her father defended arrests of thousands who have turned out for rallies that he said were "not allowed by the law." (Greg Miller, Ukraine invasion opens faint, but once unthinkable, fissures between Putin and Russian oligarchs, Washington Post, February 28, 2022)
Russia is feeling the effect of sanctions:
Russia's currency collapsed in overnight trading, with the ruble plummeting against the dollar as the West imposed unprecedented, crippling sanctions and massive corporations said they would end their business in Russia.
The Russian central bank raised interest rates from 9.5% to 20% and announced a raft of measures—including the suspension of stock trading on the Moscow Exchange—in a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding. (Zachary Basu, Dave Lawler, Massive Russian convoy heads toward Kyiv as first round of peace talks ends, Axios, February 28, 2022)
Against this heartening news must be weighed terrible realities. Cities face heavy shelling as Russian forces advance on Kyiv and Kharkiv, with reports of Russian use of cluster munitions near schools and hospitals. "Cluster munitions typically explode in the air and send dozens, even hundreds, of small bomblets over an area the size of a football field. Cluster submunitions often fail to explode on initial impact, leaving duds that act like landmines."
Putin upped the ante when he ordered Russia's strategic nuclear forces to raise their alert status because people in the West are saying mean things about him.
What should the U.S. do?
For now, the sensible, and confident, American answer should be to do nothing. This might seem counterintuitive: The Russians have gone to higher alert, and it would seem only prudent to answer this with a reciprocal raising of U.S. alert status. But that Cold War reaction would, I suspect, be exactly what Putin wants. He’s in a jam and he’s trying to look strong, and part of the way he can do that is to turn his hare-brained scheme in Ukraine into a gigantic Russian-American confrontation. Putin would like nothing better than to take everyone’s mind off Ukraine and focus us all on a game of nuclear chicken. (How Should the U.S. Respond to Putin’s Nuclear Provocation?, Tom Nichols, The Atlantic, February 22, 2022)
Fiona Hill believes that the nuclear threat is real and argues that sanctions are not enough.
You need to have a major international response, where governments decide on their own accord that they can’t do business with Russia for a period of time until this is resolved. We need a temporary suspension of business activity with Russia. Just as we wouldn’t be having a full-blown diplomatic negotiation for anything but a ceasefire and withdrawal while Ukraine is still being actively invaded, so it’s the same thing with business. Right now you’re fueling the invasion of Ukraine. So what we need is a suspension of business activity with Russia until Moscow ceases hostilities and withdraws its troops.
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If Western companies, their pension plans or mutual funds, are invested in Russia they should pull out. Any people who are sitting on the boards of major Russian companies should resign immediately. Not every Russian company is tied to the Kremlin, but many major Russian companies absolutely are, and everyone knows it.
Putin's goal, she says, is "reestablishing Russian dominance of what Russia sees as the Russian 'Imperium.' I’m saying this very specifically because the lands of the Soviet Union didn’t cover all of the territories that were once part of the Russian Empire. So that should give us pause." (Maura Reynolds, 'Yes, He Would': Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes, Politico, February 28, 2022)
Some members of the realist school of foreign affairs have pushed the line that the crisis in Ukraine is a consequence of NATO encroachment on the Russia's sphere of influence. Others with expertise offer a different perspective.
NATO’s eastward expansion may have played a role in straining the relationship between Russia and the West, but mainly because, for Russia, seeing former satellites eagerly abandon it for the greener pastures of Euro-Atlantic integration stung. However, Putin’s rhetoric and actions over almost two decades reveal that his goals extend beyond imposing neutrality on Ukraine or even staving off further NATO expansion. The larger objective is to re-establish Russian political and cultural dominance over a nation that Putin sees as one with Russia, and then follow up by undoing the European rules-based order and security architecture established in the aftermath of World War II. Given these goals, Ukrainian neutrality is a woefully insufficient concession for Putin.
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A longer look at Putin’s two decades in power shows that, above all, he fears political competition in the neighborhood…A recent book on conspiracy theories in the Russian media since 1995 shows that the 2003-2005 "color revolutions" were the top source of conspiratorial, anti-Western narratives…Instead of decrying NATO expansion, Russia prioritized complaints about Western political “meddling” in its neighboring countries, by which Russia meant U.S. and European support for domestic democratization drives. (Maria Popova, Oxana Shevel, Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Is Essentially Not About NATO, Just Security, February 24, 2022)
Congressperson Lauren Boebert (R-CO) compared the Russian invasion of Ukraine to Canadian government actions against the trucker convoy: "“We also have neighbors to the north who need freedom and who need to be liberated” (Republican Lauren Boebert compares Ukraine to Canadian truckers’ convoy, The Guardian, February 28, 2022).
As a Russian convoy heads toward Kyiv, American truckers inspired by their blockhead brethren to the north bear down on Washington DC to oppose the tyranny of being required to receive vaccinations that will protect them and others from a deadly virus and to wear masks that will slow the spread of the virus.
In One-Dimensional Man (1964) Herbert Marcuse wrote of the moronization that accompanies the sale of goods in the "affluent society." Much of One-Diminsional Man is dated. Insights worth pondering are sprinkled thinly through a mess of dense jargon that may leave the unwary with an impression of profundity. Moronization though is a concept that is broadly applicable to aspects of contemporary culture and politics.
Keep the faith.
Stand with Ukraine.
yr obdt svt
Two new blog posts:
- Cutting Through the Gibberish Around Critical Race Theory, February 24, 2022. It does not require the second coming of Émile Durkheim to notice that many Americans turn to comedians for information about social and political issues and developments. Those who lean left look to professionals …read more>>
- Ukraine: Feelings of Horror, Outrage, Futility, February 25, 2022. Reports from Ukraine are grim. Russia is bombing Kyiv and Russian forces are converging on the capital.…read more>>
Pictured below: View from the deck, late afternoon. February 28, 2022..
