Newsletter June 2022 The Center for Peace and Conflict Studies The CPCS Response to the Ukraine War Dear Friends and Colleagues, It has been over four months since the Russian army entered Ukraine, shattering the lives of Ukrainians, and causing over 10,000 civilian casualties, over 8 million refugees, and over 7 million internally displaced persons. The war in Ukraine is a paradigm shift which has brought down the curtain on the post-Cold War era. It is not yet clear what the new Europe will look like, whether this is the end of Pax Americana, or the conflict will reignite moves towards liberal democracy in the region and globally. However, the conflict is already shaping the potential for peace in Europe and globally. While the war is in, and for, Ukraine, with Ukrainians living through the trauma of militarized violence, the conflict also has significant impacts beyond Europe. This is most evident in the region of Middle East and North Africa, where the increase in grain prices has created conditions similar to those before the 2011 Arab Spring. The instability could lead to an increase in poverty and famine, social tensions and violence, and the overthrow of governments. The war in Ukraine has also impacted many global conflicts that share similar characteristics, such as between China and Taiwan. A potential war over Taiwan will be a central challenge for the global peace in the post-Afghanistan and the post-Ukraine age. In response, the Center for Peace and Conflict Studies (CPCS) organized a series of events and analytical work looking at the implications of the Ukraine War for the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. In this newsletter you will find a briefing of the activities we have organized and publications that connect to the Ukraine conflict. First, it summarizes the open panel discussion on Ukraine and its impacts. Second, it provides summaries of the two high-level track-2 dialogue sessions on how to prevent war over Taiwan and between China and the US. Finally, it provides summaries of the two publications from our community. The newsletter concludes with a briefing of our other activities and publications in Spring 2022. As always, we are grateful for your continued interest in, and engagement with, the Center for Peace and Conflict Studies as we continue to push for greater peace globally. With Gratitude, |
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The War for Ukraine: Ukrainian civil resistance, and implications for global peace On the 23rd of March 2022, CPCS organized a crisis policy dialogue on The War for Ukraine: Ukrainian civil resistance, and implications for global peace. The dialogue covered the potential for peace within Ukraine and Europe (Donald Jensen, Director of Russia, and Europe, USIP), the role of civilian resistance in achieving peace in Ukraine (Nina Potarska, Ukraine National Coordiantor, WILPF), the implications of the war on states neighboring Russia (Dr. Hans Gutbrod, Illia State University and CPCS Senior Fellow), and for how other global conflicts are managed, such as the tensions over Taiwan (Prof. Zheng Wang). |
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The discussion identified the importance of: 1) overcoming the information divide between Russians and Ukrainians, which is making it impossible for a shared understanding of the impact of the war; 2) supporting Ukrainian peacemakers, and especially women peacemakers, who are under considerable threat from both sides, but still maintain important connections across the country and with Russia; 3) learning from how Russia has approached peace negotiations in the past, and being more realistic on its approach to negotiation and commitments to negotiation outcomes; 4) the fear of Russian aggression that exists among its neighbors, and the need to put in place conflict prevention measures across the region; 5) historical memory, and how it shapes policy making towards international conflict issues in the present (e.g., both Russia and China share claims to heritage, identity and culture over Ukraine and Taiwan respectively; and 6) hence, reducing exclusionist discourse and symbolic politics in order to prevent conflict. The recording of the session can be found on our website here. |
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The US-China Security Dialogue Project Supported by the generous funding of the Henry Luce Dialogue Foundation, the US-China Security Dialogue Project has conducted many rounds of Track 2 dialogue between American and Chinese former officials, leading experts, and academic representatives since 2016. Over 100 senior experts and officials from both sides have participated in these sessions. The two sessions highlighted below represent a key focus on the impacts of the Ukraine War on US-China Relations and East Asian Peace. The War in Ukraine and the Implications on East Asian Peace On the 14th of March 2022, CPCS Director Zheng Wang and Dr. Zhu Feng, Executive Dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University facilitated the Luce dialogue, The War in Ukraine and the Implications on East Asian Peace, between American, Chinese, and international analysts. The session focused on the impacts of the war in Ukraine on East Asia, whether the East Asian peace can survive, the potential parallels between Taiwan and Ukraine, and how to prevent conflict in East Asia, especially over Taiwan. Participants of this meeting included scholars from Japan, Norway, as well as China and the United States: - Tatsushi Arai: Associate Professor at Kent State University’s School of Peace and Conflict Studies, and CPCS Senior Fellow.
- Da Wei: Professor at Tsinghua University, the Director of the Center for Strategic and International Security Studies.
- Helena Kolenda: Director of Asia Program, Henry Luce Foundation.
- Gregory Poling: Director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
- Margaret Lewis: Professor of Law, Seton Hall University.
- Stein Tønnesson: Professor and Former Director of Peace Research Institute Oslo.
- Xin Qiang: Professor and Director of the Center for Taiwan Studies, Fudan University.
The session exposed a large perception gap between policymakers within the US and China. One major perception gap that was highlighted was the relationship that China has with Russia and whether China knew of the plans for the Ukraine invasion beforehand. The second perception gap was regarding the real impact of NATO’s eastern expansion and how this influenced Russia's actions to defend its security interests. Lastly, the dialogue highlighted the concern that the war in Ukraine has had a profound negative impact on the relationship between China and the US, especially regarding the tensions over Taiwan. The Ukraine War on Sino-US Relations: Impacts and Challenges On the 9th of May 2022, Seton Hall University’s CPCS Director Zheng Wang and Dr. Zhu Feng, Executive Dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University facilitated the follow-up dialogue, The Ukraine War on Sino-US Relations: Impacts and Challenges. The session focused on the impacts of the Ukraine on Sino-US relations, and what the two countries should do to improve bilateral relations and prevent future conflict. Four leading scholars from the two countries attended this meeting, including Dr. Taylor Fravel (Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science, MIT), Dr. Robert Ross (Professor of Political Science at Boston College), Da Wei (Professor at Tsinghua University, the Director of the Center for Strategic and International Security Studies), and Dr. Zha Daojiong: (Professor, the School of International Studies, Peking University). The participants expressed major concerns regarding the impacts of the Ukraine War on Sino-US relations. The Ukraine war has become an additional dividing force spoiling relations between the two countries, due to mutual suspicions of the intention of each other’s policy making towards Ukraine. These concerning trends need to be addressed by improved bilateral communication and effective conflict management. |
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Publications related to the Ukraine War from CPCS Members in Spring 2022 Ukraine's Wrong Lessons for Taiwan (The National Interest, May 2022) By Dr. Zheng Wang. In his article, Dr. Zheng Wang argues that the war in Ukraine has provided a full simulation and many key lessons for a potential conflict over Taiwan. However, there has been a terrible tendency for each of the three parties to take the wrong lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian War. |
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Dr. Wang believes that it is important to learn the right lessons from the Ukraine war and recognize that there are no winners in war, and no losers in peace. He also explains the differences between Ukraine and Taiwan and how they make a war for Taiwan potentially devastating for China, the Taiwanese people, and the United States. For the United States, policymakers should realize that to use Taiwan as a tool to contain or defeat China is desirable but would be an extremely dangerous action as the consequences of such an action would be unpredictable. Russia’s Recent Invasion of Ukraine: The Just War Perspective (Global Policy, March 2022) By Hans Gutbrod. In Hans Gutbrod’s article, he argues that all interpretations of Russia's invasion of Ukraine point to a radical change of paradigm for international relations. He further examines the Russian invasion of Ukraine through the lens of the just war theory to assess whether Russia’s claims of a just war are valid. He finds that Russian actions fail the test and that they have engaged in the war without restraint, committing likely war crimes against civilians in the process. |
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The Center’s Other Activities and Publications within the 2021-2022 Academic Year During the Spring of 2022 the Center also organized a series of Women, Peace and Security events, which included: Other noteworthy CPCS events during the academic year: - Migration, Human Rights and Conflict with Bernardo Rodriguez, Head of the Office of the Human Rights Ombudsman of the People of Oaxaca, Mexico—February 9th, 2022.
- CPCS Director Zheng Wang delivered a key note speech, “When Coronavirus Meets Nationalism: Pandemic, Memory, and the Collapse of the US-China Relations,” at the History as an Instrument of Contemporary International Conflicts Conference organized by the Pedagogical University of Cracow, University of Leipzig, and Institute of European Network Remembrance—November 8-10, 2021.
- Crisis and Post-conflict Governance in the MENA Region, CPCS MENA Director, David Wood spoke at one of the workshops at the event organized by the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.
- The Science of America’s Polarization, presented by Chandra DeNap Whetstine, Vice-President of Programs and Operations at The One America Movement, and CPCS Non-Residential Fellow—October 14th, 2021.
- Memory Politics: The Challenge of Commemoration in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, where CPCS MENA Director David Wood and CPCS Senior Fellow Hans Gutbrod spoke at a Chatham House event—October 5th, 2021.
- Ask the Experts: Afghanistan, featuring former Afghan Ambassador Sayed Jalal Karim, Andrew Watkins (USIP), Dr. Sara Moller, Dr. Joseph Huddleston, CPCS MENA Director David Wood—September 10th, 2021.
Recent publications and media from our colleagues during the 2021-2022 academic year: |
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Final Thank You for Our Colleagues We would like to thank our many colleagues who continue to make the Center a force for peace. We would also like to thank those who have recently left CPCS, but have contributed greatly to its many successes. Pallavi Shahi who contributed greatly to the Center’s US-China programs. Rebecca Axelsson led the Center’s communication activities. We wish them the best on their future journey and we look forward to hearing about all the amazing work that they will accomplish in their careers. |
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