AEF Climate News

A review and commentary on topical matters concerning the science, economics, and governance associated with climate change developments.

By Alan Moran,

June 2017

Politics
The Paris Treaty

TRUMP EXITS!! “Elected to represent the people of Pittsburgh not Paris”. Refuses to undermine US wealth and prosperity simply to give commercial advantage to other nations and to transfer billions of dollars a year to be redistributed by an international bureaucracy.

 

Earlier in May, Vice President Mike Pence received a first-hand look at a Montana coal mine and, foreshadowing the June 1 statement, declared that the "war on coal is over."

 

The UN piled on the pressure, “get on board or get left behind” said incoming Secretary General Antonio Guterres and “The effects of climate change are dangerous and they are accelerating,” and US exiting the agreement would threaten its own security.

 

The World Bank is also on the cart with a report headed by grant cheat Lord Stern and Joe Stiglitz who estimated the Paris Agreement will need a $100 per tonne global carbon tax; claiming that this would raise $4 trillion, save humanity from global warming, promote growth and eradicate poverty. Who could find fault in that?

 

EU steelmakers for one! They do not think that the industry could be competitive with the burden of the proposed level of carbon tax necessary to achieve the EUs’s 40 per cent Paris Agreement reduction. Also within the EU, the eastern Europeans are trying to gut and block the implementation of the Paris Agreement measures. 

 

Robert Bryce reports Since 2005, the EU and several of its member countries have enacted various climate-change initiatives, including emissions trading and renewable-energy mandates. During 2008–14, EU-member countries spent some $106 billion on energy subsidies. Three countries—Germany ($27.2 billion), Spain ($11.1 billion), and the U.K. ($14.3 billion)—accounted for nearly half of that sum.

 

Featuring Greenpeace agitprop, Euractive claims, “Either China and the EU push their American counterparts into doing their fair share, or they resign themselves to picking up the US’s slack, on top of their own commitments.” Hmm, the EU’s 40 per cent reduction is already shaky and China is taking no abatement action – indeed, fearing carbon tariffs, China is urging the EU to stay with the WTO rules. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker however says Trump does not understand the Agreement and cannot just leave. So there!

 

Other ‘remainer’ voices include Elon Musk, whose fortune rests on green subsidies, and who has confirmed he'll cease offering Trump advice if he leaves the Treaty!

 

One of the arguments by Paris ‘remainers’ is the deal allows countries to weaken their pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions. But not according Laurence Tubiana, France’s climate diplomat who said the Paris agreement does not allow countries to weaken their pledges. “The sense of the direction is really progress; it’s not going backwards.” Under Article 4.11 of the Paris agreement: “A party may at any time adjust its existing nationally determined contribution but only with a view to enhancing its level of ambition.” and as Andrew McCarthy shows the Vienna treaties convention, which the US joined in 1970 requires signatories “to refrain from acts which would defeat the object and purpose of the treaty.” For such reasons, the Australian Environment Foundation joined 41 US think tanks in urging Trump to withdraw. The American Conservative offered an alternative, arguing that Trump should skewer his opponents and submit the Agreement to the Senate for ratification as a treaty. In being open to a renegotiated Paris Agreement, Trump is taking both routes!

 

In Canberra, the assessment was that because many senior administration members favoured remaining in the pact, there was unlikely to be a US withdrawal that could unravel the entire global agreement. Taxpayers clearly get poor advice from their bureaucrats who are not even well informed. Shellshocked, Environment Minister Frydenberg said he'd spoken to the Prime Minister and Australia will press on with its 26 per cent "National Contribution" emission reduction.

 

Always a reliable advocate for economic harm, The Guardian set out the “five worst things Trump” has done on climate change (appoint Pruitt to EPA, cut EPA budget, demolish the regulatory “Clean Power” planned climate change programs, open up federal land and waters to drilling, approve new pipelines). 

 

And Scoop reports Trump is set to slash the economy-sapping spending from the energy department with the draft budget allocation for 2018 down 70 per cent.

Congress is looking carefully at whether to continue subsidising the doomed-to-fail carbon capture and storage measures.

Elsewhere in politics

Quebec and Ontario are linked to the California cap and trade system which has a carbon price of $13 per tonne at present (Australia's before abolition in 2013 was about the same). The price is to rise to $20-30 after 2020 and the Canadians are having second thoughts.

 

Australia’s government will soon receive the report of the Chief Scientist, green entrepreneur and climate alarmist Alan Finkel, which will doubtless reiterate his initial theme that the move to renewables is inevitable and beneficial. Energy Minister Frydenberg recognises that new thermal investment is necessary to stabilise the grid. But, as the AEF submission to the Finkel inquiry demonstrated, the existing level of subsidised wind is forcing the closure of low cost coal plant resulting in a doubling of wholesale electricity prices and the subsidised electricity market share is set to rise from its existing 9 per cent to 15 per cent. Major smelter Glencore warns that it is no longer economically viable to operate energy intensive plant in Australia – a massive fall from grace compared with the position 15 years ago when Australia had the cheapest electricity in the world.

 

The Queensland government has apparently never heard of Trump and is opting to spend another $3 billion of taxpayers’ money on subsidising solar. And two investors are studying an $8 billion subsidised wind generation project off the coast of Victoria.

 

South Korea under new leftist president Moon Jai-in plans to shut temporarily 10 of the country’s 59 coal fired power stations; ostensibly as a move to curb particulates causing respiratory diseases, but also mentioned are carbon emissions. The new government is also anti-nuclear (nuclear provides 30 per cent of electricity) on safety grounds.

 

According to data compiled by CoalSwarm, an industry watchdog, more than 100 coal-generating units with a combined capacity of 42.5 gigawatts are in various stages of planning or development in 11 African countries outside of South Africa—more than eight times the region’s existing coal capacity.

The Science

Alarmists finally recognise that there was a warming “pause”; having previously denied it, they now say it is over. Dr David Whitehouse with the Global Warming Policy Foundation wrote, “One could be a little sarcastic in saying why would Nature devote seven of its desirable pages to an event that some vehemently say never existed and maintain its existence has been disproved long ago. Now, however, as the El Nino spike of the past few years levels off, analyzing the ‘pause’ seems to be coming back into fashion.”

 

The satellite data indicates that average temperatures in April 2017 were 0.27 degrees above the 30-year average from 1981–2010. In the previous month, the data showed that the temperature was just 0.19 degrees above the 30-year average. The IPCC had forecast temperature variations five to 10 times as large.

 

Tony Heller addressed fraudulent temperature adjustments showing how NASA revises its own data to fabricate warming

 

Meanwhile, all the hype on a boiling Arctic is proving to be unfounded. Ice coverage has not changed since 2004.

Similarly inaccurate were the assertions that climate change will bring reductions in agricultural output. Here are the trends in cereal production.

The science prophesying dangerous climate change was systematically examined and found deficient by Martin Hertzberg and Hans Schreuder.

 

In rejecting the Paris Agreement, President Trump referred to the trivial effect it would have on global temperatures.  That effect is shown in this graph which, using data of the alarmists, demonstrates miniscule change even if the Paris Agreement were to be it be fully adhered to by all parties.

By the same token the talismanic coral reefs are under no threat. A global study of multiple reefs finds corals adapt to warmer water and recover.  According to the study, “Worldwide, an estimated 60 percent of corals and 90 percent of coral species experienced bleaching due to unusually warm ocean water in 2016.” Permanent damage from coral bleaching is not likely even if there were considerable warming. 

Climate Economics

AEI reports that solar takes 79 workers to produce the equivalent output of one worker in coal power. Solar only exists because of subsidies which in the US are 350 times higher per unit of electricity production than those for fossil fuels.

Teslas’ Solar City installations fell 40 per cent in the first quarter of 2017, understandably Elon Musk is seeking new markets with the hapless South Australians. The subsidy dependent business is also sliding on stock exchanges.

Whimsey and fake news

Spare a thought for the burgers from Canberra, said in fake news about ocean level rises to be facing inundation of their coastal holiday homes.

 

Allegedly, heat caused by climate change is making us all lose sleep. And it’s apparently getting difficult to offset this with a refreshing ice cream because climate change is bringing a shrinking vanilla production!

 

For its part, India is claimed to be having to import nutmeg as a result of global warming. 

 

Facing such inconveniences the world must thank the Thai authorities for their efforts which include fining 11 villagers for contributing to global warming by encroaching onto parkland.

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