A review and commentary on topical matters concerning the science, economics, and governance associated with climate change developments.

By Alan Moran,

4  May, 2016

News about the Science

After a very high recorded temperature in March, the el nino effect is now subsiding but Roy Spencer thinks the 2016 average temperature could still end up a record warm year in the post 1989 satellite data.

The northern ice, which Al Gore once said would be all gone by 2013, has also been increasing since 2009. Steve Goddard has deciphered the confusing NSIDC data to demonstrate this.  

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) allows the monitoring of sea surface temperature patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations such as European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. The last major phase change (cold-to-warm) took place right around the mid-point of the 1990’s. The AMO index has generally been descending during the past few years providing support to the notion that a cool-down is indeed occurring in the North Atlantic.

Nature, the bastion of PC climatologists has actually published a letter reporting research by two dozen mainly Chinese scientists showing that increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will be beneficial for the plants' photosynthesis.

The remarkable thing is that Nature, following a tortuous process actually published the letter, which confirms evidence developed by Craig and Sherwood Idso in their experiments with CO2 and plants. co2science.org. Even the BBC had to accept the finding that more CO2 brings a greener plant though they are still forecasting fire and brimstone!

Green scams

Earth Day came and went and was the landmark under which the wealth-crushing Paris climate Change agreement was signed by Obama and the collective. Andrew Follett reminds us of the forecasts that were made by the Earth Day promoters over the years: Famine, no oil, asphyxiation without gas masks. 

Green energy is likely to discontinue its growth in developing countries. According to a spokesperson for Germany’s energy ministry, that’s because it is too expensive – who ever would have thought that?

China is not doing much harm to fossil fuelled generation. Its carbon emission allocations are so generous that the carbon tax effect of trading is below $1 per tonne.

Segoline Royal, gossamer defender of the poor, is seeking to drive her constituents into poverty by promoting a carbon tax that almost doubles the cost of generated energy. Moreover, she and a sympathiser have been appointed to chair a World Bank-led initiative to provide support for governments and companies that want to put a price on carbon.  Segoline accolade was dwarfed by that given to climate hypocrite Leonardo DiCaprio, a UN 'messenger of peace'.

Nobody with genuine qualifications could ever be appointed to such a body. Indeed, Matt Ridley, distinguished scientific author, naturalist, PhD zoologist, columnist, applied for the chairmanship of the Natural History Museum and did not get an interview as he is a climate sceptic.

Meanwhile, the carbon emissions scam has procreated a brand new underworld of people taking advantage of its artificially created value. A current case involves €1.4 billion worth of tax fraud, has been accompanied by murder and other mayhem and is one of 15 underway in France.

Climate Hustle, which premiered at the Paris Climate Conference in December, has been released in the US. Marc Morano said, “We go through the tipping points. We show how the United Nations in the 1980s was predicting a 10-year tipping point, where we must act in order to fight global warming. “We have Prince Charles. We have Al Gore and a whole host of other people making ridiculous tipping points that have come and gone but they just draw a line and scratch out the old date and enter a new date. “Climate Hustle” contends that liberals (US style) insist that climate change is our greatest global challenge as a path to realloate wealth. The Australian Environment Foundation has asked to host showings of the film in Australia.

Economic Reality

The Climate Institute estimates Australia’s renewable program is equivalent to a $40 per tonne carbon tax but acknowledges that what is needed to meet the two degrees target is a global price of hundreds of dollars. Denmark has real experience of such costs and is undergoing a rollback of renewables.  

In the UK, the travails of the steel industry are sheeted home to the high (climate measures induced) price of energy beleaguered Tata steel’s CEO claims the firm would be making money if it had German electricity prices. This is notwithstanding German prices, themselves being among the highest in the world due to regulations requiring renewables that now comprise a very expensive one-third of supply. 

The EU saw its CO2 emissions increase on 2015. The bad guys included Portugal and Hungary, with over 5 per cent increases, are counterbalanced by heroic outcomes of more than 5 per cent in reductions for Malta, Estonia, Finland and Greece.

In Germany’s case, a modest increase in emissions was recorded in spite of a 33 billion Euros price tag for replacing modern plant with renewables – some of the cost coming from a need to undertake grid fortification against the haphazard nature of renewable supply.  A further 11 per cent cost increase is estimated for 2016.

But good news for those who think that western industry is being unfairly outcompeted by third world suppliers – climate change will apparently lead to heat-induced 10 per cent cut in their working hours!

Political contortions and public opinion

The US climate alarmists’ legal assault on their opponents continues with demands for endless paperwork to support infinitely resourced government litigatory expeditions designed to cower the Democrat’s’ opponents. Exxon Mobil, CEI and virtually all conservative US organisations as well as scientists Richard Lindzen, John Christie and David Legates are included in the subpoena calling for all “research, advocacy, strategy, reports, studies, reviews, or public opinions regarding Climate Change.”

Concerned about the impact on liberty, the Wall Street Journal advocates fighting back with counter lawsuits. The US, sickened by green cant, those considering themselves “environmentalists” have fallen from 78 per cent to 42 per cent over the past 25 years.  

In the IPSOS poll Australians’ concern about tackling "global warming" fell from 55 per cent to 35 per cent over the eight years since 2008.  Although an Essential poll put at 63 per cent those who think climate change is happening and it’s due to human activity.

The Australian Labor Party is betting against a growing scepticism. Their climate policy for the July election says global warming is undeniable and contains a new factoid to prove it: a claim that 0.1 per cent of the globe used to be affected by extreme weather events and the share is now10%!

Labor is planning to place a carbon charge on fossil fuel power stations and to bring in 50 per cent renewable requirements. To ease concerns it has got tame pundits to say this will have a trivial cost! Its policy includes more funding and:

• Prevention of land clearing
• Continuing and adding funding to the Climate Change Authority
• Offering $90m to help local communities shift to cleaner power generation
• Accept the target of “zero net pollution” by 2050. The Coalition has committed to it by the end of the century.
  • Stick with the target of reducing emissions by 45% by 2030 based on 2005 levels – as recommended by the Climate Change Authority, compared with the Coalition’s pledge of a reduction between 26% and 28%. (When Labor first committed to the 45% emissions reduction several Coalition frontbenchers, including the environment minister, Greg Hunt, said Labor’s plan would cost the economy $600b).

Taking a leaf from the Venezuelan playbook, Labor says its massive interventions will double Australia’s energy productivity by 2030, trumping the Coalition’s limp-wristed promise to increase it by 40%! Motivated by an allure of sharing in subsidies at the expense of the more carbon intensive brown coal generators, the energy industry association is supporting the policy hoping that they will not be its next victims.

The Commonwealth May 3 budget didn’t build upon the existing projected $5 billion a year in funding and regulatory diversions in support of emission reductions. And, with Labor acquiescence, it abandoned one sleazy program, Australian Renewable Energy Agency, that provides an additional subsidy to renewables.   

The Government remains intent on downsizing the CSIRO climate change propaganda unit. Attorney General Senator Brandis who in 2014, claimed to believe in anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming, in the Senate (19 April) he said that, “if the science was settled - like Labor claims - why would Australia need climate researchers?”

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